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The best Forecasting newsletters

3 newsletters, ranked by editorial quality and how recently they published. Looking for something more specific? Search instead.

blog.aifutures.org· irregular· Published 20 days ago

Research nonprofit blog on AI timelines forecasting, AGI and superintelligence risk, and policy proposals for managing frontier AI development. It publishes forecasting model updates, regulatory proposals, and testimony on AI safety.

agiai timelinessuperintelligencefrontier aiai regulationexistential risk
news.manifold.markets· irregular· Published yesterday

Above The Fold is a newsletter from Manifold Markets that uses prediction-market data to analyse current events, such as the 2026 Texas midterm races. It also includes longer essays on forecasting habits and how to think more clearly about questions and evidence.

manifold marketstexas senate race2026 midtermstalaricopaxtonprediction markets

Metaculus

Substack
metaculus.substack.com· irregular· Published 2 days ago

Metaculus's Substack shares forecasting analysis on AI-related philanthropy, such as how Anthropic and OpenAI IPO wealth may flow to charities, and on AI existential risk, using interactive Radiant maps. Readers get probabilistic forecasts paired with explicit assumptions and reasoning behind them.

metaculusprediction marketsai ipo windfallanthropic ipoopenai ipodonor-advised funds