Metaculus's Substack shares forecasting analysis on AI-related philanthropy, such as how Anthropic and OpenAI IPO wealth may flow to charities, and on AI existential risk, using interactive Radiant maps. Readers get probabilistic forecasts paired with explicit assumptions and reasoning behind them.
Website: https://metaculus.substack.com
Research nonprofit blog on AI timelines forecasting, AGI and superintelligence risk, and policy proposals for managing frontier AI development. It publishes forecasting model updates, regulatory proposals, and testimony on AI safety.
Above The Fold is a newsletter from Manifold Markets that uses prediction-market data to analyse current events, such as the 2026 Texas midterm races. It also includes longer essays on forecasting habits and how to think more clearly about questions and evidence.
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