A graduate seminar companion blog by Ben Recht examining forecasting, statistics and automated decision making, covering survey sampling, pandemic modeling and prediction culture. Readers get critical, historically grounded explanations of when and why forecasts and optimization claims can be trusted.
Website: https://www.argmin.net
VarOps publishes data-backed pieces on applied AI, including hands-on benchmarks of new models, critiques of how coding agents are evaluated, and tooling for agent-driven development. Each issue includes disclosures, concrete numbers, and tests readers can run on their own data or history.
Research nonprofit publishing AI timelines forecasts, modeling updates, policy proposals and testimony on the path to AGI and superintelligence. Readers get detailed forecasting methodology and concrete governance ideas for slowing or pacing frontier AI development.
A newsletter that analyzes AI progress and loss-of-control risk, including incident investigations, forecast scorecards and policy arguments about third-party evaluation. Readers get first-person, evidence-focused commentary from someone working inside AI safety research.
The official newsletter of Manifold Markets, a prediction market platform, mixing data-driven analysis of political races using market odds and polling with essays on forecasting skills. Readers get market-based takes on the 2026 US midterms and reflections on how prediction markets shape thinking.
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