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Foxy Scout

Ghost
foxy-scout.com· irregular· Inactive for over a year

A personal blog-style newsletter where the author evaluates past AI capability forecasts against actual benchmark results and registers new predictions. It also covers forecasting methodology, including what 'overconfident' really means and how to structure probability estimates.

ai forecastsai predictionsgpt-4.5swe-benchosworldforecasting methodologycalibrationprobability estimatesai benchmarksoverconfidencemetaculusai capabilities
Platform
Ghost
Frequency
Irregular
Latest issue
Jan 14, 2025
Language
English
Written for
AI researchers, forecasters and readers interested in AI progress
Tone
analytical
Tracked since
Oct 22, 2026

Website: https://www.foxy-scout.com/